Berkeley Forum

How will the current war in Lebanon affect the country's internal politics in the years to come? I think that Israel took a huge gamble going into this conflict. This war can affect Lebanon's internal politics in two possible ways.

If the non-Shia majority in Lebanon (composed mostly of Sunni's and Christians) identifies with this war as its war, then Hezbollah will emerge out of this conflict stronger than before: the cause of "Liberation" will gain momentum once again, the investigation into Rafiq Hariri's assasination will fade into the background, and the calls for Hezbollah's disarmament will lose much of their vigor; the Lebanese government will be isolated more than ever before, and Hezbollah will add to its legitimacy as a competent and viable force for (much-needed) resistence.

On the other hand, if the non-Shia majority in Lebanon does not identify with this war as its war, then Hezbollah will bear much of the blame for the destruction of the Lebanese infrastructure. More people, even from within the Shia community, will call for Hezbollah's disarmament, and Hezbollah's political appeal will diminish within the general population. As an organization dedicated to active resistence, Hezbollah will lose much of its credibility, both within and without the Lebanese community.

How the non-Shia Lebanese majority will view this war, in my opinion, depends ultimately on how well Israel could manage it (a parallel can be drawn here with the shifting attitudes of the Iraqi population towards the U.S. as the war dragged on and the insurgency grew). In the end, the frequency of humanitarian disasters such as the Qana Attack could easily tip the balance one way or another.